I was looking at the GILLESPIE projections for this weekend when I noticed some interesting names that have made their way into Doug Martin’s comparables list.  The player that Martin is most often compared to in the media is Ray Rice.  However, my statistical comparisons aren’t going to make that match now because Martin is averaging almost 100 yards per game rushing, while Rice’s best season was 85 yards per game.  Also, while it might seem impossible to be smaller than Martin, Ray Rice actually is listed as weighing about 20 less pounds than Martin.  Weight is a consideration in my similarity system.

I’ll offer that the names below might be more interesting than they are helpful, which is to say that being similar to Arian Foster-2010 might not tell us very much about Martin’s future.  But sometimes being interesting is enough.  At a minimum we can see how Martin’s season compares to guys that we regard as having been very good running backs.

 

Doug Martin Season to Date

Name	Yr	Wt/Age	Att/G	Y/G	Y/C	TD/G	RecYds/G
Doug Martin	2012	223/23	19.2	99.2	5.20	0.9	30.6

 

Similar Seasons

Name	Yr	Wt/Age	Att/G	Y/G	Y/C	TD/G	RecYds/G
Arian Foster	2010	224/24	20.4	100.9	4.90	1.1	38.6
LaDainian Tomlinson	2002	221/23	23.9	109.8	4.60	0.9	31.7
Edgerrin James	2000	214/22	24.7	109.2	4.40	0.9	35.2
Ricky Williams	2002	226/25	23.7	115.5	4.90	1.1	21.6
Adrian Peterson	2009	217/24	19.3	87.9	4.50	1.1	29.1
Chris Johnson	2009	191/24	22.9	129.9	5.70	0.9	32.8
Clinton Portis	2003	205/22	22	123.3	5.60	1.1	24.5
Larry Johnson	2005	228/26	21.9	115.8	5.30	1.3	23.1
Deuce McAllister	2003	232/25	22.6	108.2	4.80	0.5	32.5

The short answer: not really.  I have Foster forecast to have a down week this week, by Foster’s standards anyway as I have him off by about 20% from his usual forecast, but I also have him firmly in the top three at the running back position with Ray Rice and Doug Martin.  The interesting thing about Foster this year is that he hasn’t caught a lot of passes, which had been one of the most attractive reasons to own him over the previous two seasons.  Pass catching running backs are optimal from a fantasy standpoint because they are essentially game situation-proof.  It doesn’t matter whether their team has a lead or not, they’re going to be in the game.  But that hasn’t mattered for Foster this year as Houston has led most games they’ve played in (and Foster’s 17 carries for 29 yards in the Green Bay game were covered up by two rushing touchdowns).

In any case, the tables below contain the results and the underlying numbers from my GILLESPIE projection for Foster.  The first table contains a summary of Foster’s season, the Bears defense’s season, and the week 10 game projection.  The table below that shows the similar matchups that went into GILLESPIE.

Even while I say that we shouldn’t be worried about Foster’s matchup, I will take another opportunity to say that we should always be prepared for a range of outcomes.  Note that in the 30 most similar matchups table, there are a few games of 2-5 fantasy points.  Fantasy football is a game of variance.  All we can really try to do is make our best guess as to what the future might bring.

Subject Matchup Summary and Forecast

*Summary statistics are organized as follows: Carries Per Game/Rushing Yards Per Game/Yards Per Carry/Touchdowns Per Game/Receiving Yards Per Game

Season Summary						Game Projections
Name	Yr	Wt/Age	Player Summary	Def	Def Summary	CAR	YDS	TDS	RECS	RYDS	RTDS	FPs
Arian Foster	2012	224/26	24/96.2/4/1.2/9.6	CHI	17.8/71.5/4/0.2/31.9	19.60	92.13	0.97	1.77	14.53	0.03	16.67

 

Similar Games

Season Summary						Game Results
Name	Yr	Wt/Age	Player Summary	Def	Def Summary	CAR	YDS	TDS	RECS	RYDS	RTDS	FPs
Mike Anderson	2000	230/27	20.4/101/5/1.2/12.8	OAK	19.7/80.8/4.1/0.4/54.9	32	187	0	1	2	0	18.9
Larry Johnson	2005	228/26	21.9/115.8/5.3/1.3/23.1	DEN	19.4/75.1/3.9/0.6/39.2	8	13	0	0	0	0	1.3
Larry Johnson	2005	228/26	20.4/107.3/5.3/1.2/22.5	DEN	18.6/69.7/3.7/0.5/38.5	30	140	2	2	9	0	26.9
LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	221/26	21.3/94.1/4.4/1.1/24.4	DEN	19.3/74.8/3.9/0.5/42	19	52	2	0	0	0	17.2
LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	221/26	21.3/91.4/4.3/1.1/24.1	DEN	19.5/74/3.8/0.5/42.5	19	92	1	1	4	0	15.6
Cedric Benson	2009	225/27	23.8/96.1/4/0.5/8.9	MIN	19.1/71.2/3.7/0.3/40.2	16	96	0	1	4	0	10
Cedric Benson	2009	225/27	24.6/102.2/4.2/0.5/9.2	PIT	19.8/71.7/3.6/0.3/30.1	7	22	0	0	0	0	2.2
Ricky Williams	2002	226/25	23.7/115.5/4.9/1.1/21.6	OAK	19.9/75.3/3.8/0.7/42.6	27	101	0	5	39	0	14
Larry Johnson	2006	228/27	26.3/110.7/4.2/1.1/27.1	BAL	19.3/60.6/3.1/0.1/22.5	23	120	0	1	4	0	12.4
Ahman Green	2003	217/26	22.4/110.9/4.9/0.9/23.8	DEN	19.5/75.9/3.9/0.5/43	20	218	2	1	9	0	34.7
LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	221/26	21.5/92.9/4.3/1.2/22.9	KC	20.8/85.5/4.1/0.5/38.7	17	69	0	3	23	0	9.2
Rashard Mendenhall	2010	225/23	20.1/77/3.8/0.8/10.1	ATL	18.9/79.1/4.2/0.3/33.3	22	120	1	2	15	0	19.5
Shaun Alexander	2004	225/27	22.5/107.9/4.8/1/9.3	NE	22.6/83.9/3.7/0.4/33.6	16	77	1	2	30	0	16.7
LaDainian Tomlinson	2005	221/26	21.7/94.4/4.4/1.2/23.2	KC	21.2/87.7/4.1/0.5/40.5	14	47	0	3	18	0	6.5
Shaun Alexander	2005	225/28	23.3/116.1/5/1.7/4.8	IND	21.5/93.6/4.3/0.4/31.1	21	139	2	1	6	1	32.5
Edgerrin James	2003	214/25	23.5/96.3/4.1/0.8/23.2	TEN	18.4/70.6/3.8/0.5/56.7	28	97	2	2	13	0	23
Mike Anderson	2000	230/27	20/96.1/4.8/0.8/12.6	NO	19.7/74.2/3.8/0.5/38.5	37	251	4	1	5	0	49.6
Ryan Grant	2009	218/27	18.2/81.5/4.5/0.7/11.7	MIN	19.5/75.9/3.9/0.3/37.2	10	30	0	3	21	0	5.1
Shaun Alexander	2003	225/26	20.5/88.3/4.3/0.9/18.8	GB	21.3/84.3/4/0.3/41.2	20	102	1	3	13	0	17.5
Larry Johnson	2006	228/27	25.9/109.9/4.2/1/25.4	SD	20.9/83.6/4/0.7/27.5	28	132	2	2	29	0	28.1
Rashard Mendenhall	2010	225/23	20.3/82/4/0.9/9.9	BAL	21/80.7/3.8/0.3/32.3	19	45	0	3	18	0	6.3
Adrian Peterson	2009	217/24	19.8/87/4.4/1.1/25.1	PIT	20/70.4/3.5/0.3/27.8	18	69	1	4	60	0	18.9
Edgerrin James	2003	214/25	23.3/94.4/4/0.8/23.6	TEN	18.2/68.7/3.8/0.6/57.9	30	120	1	2	9	0	18.9
Adrian Peterson	2011	217/26	18.1/84.1/4.6/1/11.9	CHI	20.6/86.3/4.2/0.4/45.1	12	39	1	1	0	0	9.9
Priest Holmes	2004	213/31	24.9/110.4/4.4/1.4/20.9	ATL	22.9/86.3/3.8/0.6/33.3	22	139	4	3	41	0	42
Ryan Grant	2009	218/27	18.1/80.1/4.4/0.7/9.8	MIN	19.4/74.1/3.8/0.3/37.1	11	51	0	4	50	0	10.1
Corey Dillon	2001	225/27	21.6/85.7/4/0.7/15.2	CHI	19.4/67.6/3.5/0.3/72.7	16	30	0	0	0	0	3
Michael Turner	2008	244/26	23.8/108.3/4.6/1.1/2.7	MIN	19.6/67.7/3.5/0.5/41.4	19	70	1	0	0	0	13
Cedric Benson	2009	225/27	23.8/97.8/4.1/0.4/8.8	PIT	20.3/70.7/3.5/0.3/32.1	16	76	1	1	5	0	14.1
Stephen Davis	2003	230/29	23.5/109.2/4.7/0.6/11.5	TEN	19.4/74.7/3.9/0.7/52.2	11	20	0	1	9	0	2.9

The short answer to the question posed by the headline of this post is: Maybe?

I’m always reluctant to call a guy a sell high when I know that he both has loads of talent, and is going to see a lot of usage.  Harvin fits those two criteria.

However, the graph below shows Harvin’s schedule based on the opponent’s Fantasy Points Over Par allowed (essentially an efficiency measure) and you can see that the sweet part of Harvin’s schedule has already passed.  Coming up Harvin has games against some of the stingiest defenses in the league that allow fewer than average fantasy points per target (and adjusted for field position).

In reality I think there’s only one trade that works for a stud like Harvin.  I think you have to basically swap him out for another stud that has an easy schedule.  That’s easier said than done.

Percy Harvin Schedule (Opponent FPOP Allowed/Target)