Denarius Moore is picking up steam as a deep sleeper.  They talked about him a little in the Football Guys Thursday night podcast, so I think you have to take a look at him to see if there’s any value there.  Reports out of Oakland have called Moore the best football player on the Raiders, which is really interesting praise for a rookie.  I don’t know that I really have enough data to say that he’s absolutely a value pick, but let’s go through what we have and see what’s there.

• Moore was the SEC leader in touchdowns last year.  Even if you narrow it down to games against other SEC schools, Moore caught more touchdowns than Julio Jones did against SEC competition.   Football Outsiders has reported in the past that touchdowns are one of the most powerful predictors of translating college success to pro success.
• Moore started the season slowly (I think he was injured to start the season and then also got injured in the Vols’ game against Alabama.  But at midpoint in the season he basically went on a tear.  Below are his game logs over the last 6 games of the season when he averaged 120 yards and almost a touchdown per game.

Denarius Moore 2010 Receiving Stats (Last 6 Games Only)

• Moore was likely the victim of poor quarterback play.  The Tennessee QBs completed less than 58% of their passes for less than 8 yards per attempt.  If you compare Moore’s QB to Julio Jones’ QB, it becomes apparent how handicapped Moore was.  Greg McElroy completed 70% of his passes for 9.5 yards/attempt.
• To me, Moore looked like a smaller Hakeem Nicks when I watched his highlights.  The footage available of him is limited, but he seems to have that same understanding of how to create space that Hakeem Nicks does.  He’s fast (like every Raiders draft pick) but he also works underneath, which is important for game to game consistency.  You might think of Moore as a poor man’s Hakeem Nicks.  In Nicks last year at UNC he had a ridiculous 1200+ yards and 12 touchdowns.  Moore had 900+ yards and 9 touchdowns.  Below are Moore’s highlights so you can see if you agree with me that he looks a little like Nicks on video.

So maybe we can draw the conclusion that Moore is indeed a very good WR.  The tough thing then is to figure out whether he is good enough to be a fantasy value as a rookie.  Very few WRs are good enough to be fantasy values as rookies.

Here’s where I come down on this issue.  Oakland has a number of really fast WRs.  But the thing they are probably lacking in is a route runner who can be a reliable red zone option the way that Hakeem Nicks has been for the Giants (remember that Nicks is not the biggest guy on the field) or Jeremy Maclin has become for the Eagles.  So maybe if I have a theory that Moore could become the go to red zone option for the Raiders, that’s a risky proposition to gamble on.  I don’t really have enough data other than what I’ve seen in the preseason games.  However, the great thing in this case is that I don’t have to spend a lot to take a flier and see if I’m right.  Moore isn’t in the top 60 of wide receiver ADP.

I’m not typically a big fan of rookie WRs.  I generally think that either the college football homers or NFL homers take rookies too early hoping that they’re immediate studs (I challenge you to name a rookie WR who has won fantasy leagues when drafted as a third wide receiver or higher).  I won’t be pulling the trigger on either Julio Jones or A.J. Green as I believe their draft spots reflect their most likely upside. 

But Moore is a lot more interesting.  He’s a lot cheaper to acquire, he’s going into a situation that’s good for him, and there is enough there in the way of evidence in order to roll the dice.  If you’re in a keeper format Moore is also a much better gamble than Jones or Green as you’ll still have upside next year as well.