I actually already wrote a guest post about Greg Little some time ago for FootballSickness.com..  But since then I’ve updated the comps to work with the play-by-play database which means that we can look at them with more granular information.

If I had one thing to say about Little it would be that I can’t believe he’s a number one receiver in the NFL.  If I could say just one more thing, it would be that there’s no way he can be as bad next year as he was last year.

I don’t want to offer too much more, because as I said on Twitter, you shouldn’t listen to anything I say about Little at this point.  I’m probably hopelessly biased against him.  The other thing is that no matter how he plays this year, it can’t be as bad as last year, so there’s no point in throwing any more dirt on him.  Nowhere to go but up.

Stats that aren’t obvious:

Y/T – Yards/Target

R/G – Receptions/Game

Y/G – Yards/Game

FPOP/G – Fantasy Points Over Par/Game (essentially an efficiency measure)

Y/T – Yards/Target

Feel free to browse the names on the list.  I have just one takeaway from this data.  The similar players were all targeted quite a bit less in year 2, but they were more efficient.  Higher yards/target numbers made up for the reduced targets.  I think that’s roughly consistent with what we might predict for Little this year.  Don’t expect 7.5 targets/game again, but also he’ll be more efficient with the targets he does get.

Greg Little 2011

Name	Wt	Ht	Age	YR	G	T/G	R/G	Y/G	TD/G	FPOP/G	Y/T	FPs
G.Little	220	75	22	2011	16	7.50	3.81	44.31	0.12	-2.30	5.91	5.18

 

Comparable Seasons

Name	Wt	Age	YR	G	T/G	R/G	Y/G	TD/G	FPOP/G	Y/T	FPs
Donald Hayes	220	26	2001	16	6.56	3.25	37.31	0.125	-2.424	5.69	4.48
Dez White	215	24	2003	15	7.13	3.27	38.87	0.200	-2.121	5.45	5.09
B.Johnson	214	23	2004	16	6.38	3.06	33.56	0.062	-2.278	5.26	3.73
J.Reed	208	23	2003	16	6.50	3.62	36.75	0.125	-2.111	5.65	4.42
B.Edwards	211	25	2008	16	8.62	3.44	54.81	0.188	-2.513	6.36	6.61
A.Johnson	219	24	2005	13	8.77	4.85	52.92	0.154	-3.179	6.04	6.22
B.Gibson	204	23	2010	14	6.50	3.79	44.29	0.143	-1.244	6.81	5.29
A.Johnson	219	22	2003	16	7.44	4.12	61	0.250	0.072	8.20	7.60
J.McCareins	215	27	2005	16	6.38	2.69	44.56	0.125	-1.619	6.99	5.21
Reggie Williams	225	23	2006	16	5.69	3.25	38.50	0.250	-0.316	6.77	5.35
R.Gardner	213	26	2003	16	7.19	3.69	37.50	0.312	-1.728	5.22	5.62
D.White	215	23	2002	16	5.88	3.19	41	0.250	-0.333	6.98	5.60
K.Walter	221	26	2007	16	6.62	4.06	50	0.250	-0.205	7.55	6.50
D.White	215	22	2001	14	5.86	3.21	30.57	00	-2.680	5.22	3.06
J.Porter	220	25	2003	9	6.33	3.11	40.78	0.111	-1.630	6.44	4.74
B.Johnson	214	26	2007	16	5.44	2.81	32.81	0.125	-2.312	6.03	4.03
M.Booker	212	28	2004	15	7	3.33	42.53	0.067	-2.345	6.08	4.65
M.Crabtree	215	22	2009	11	7.82	4.36	56.82	0.182	-0.657	7.27	6.77
M.Jenkins	217	27	2009	15	6	3.33	42.33	0.067	-1.351	7.06	4.63
B.Gibson	204	22	2009	9	7.67	3.78	39	0.111	-3.110	5.09	4.57
Average	214.8	24.3		14.55	6.79	3.51	42.80	0.155	-1.704	6.31	5.21

 

Year 2

Name	YR	G	T/G	R/G	Y/G	TD/G	FPOP/G	Y/T	FPs
D.Hayes	2002	11	2.82	1.09	12.09	0.182	-0.567	4.29	2.30
D.White	2004	16	3.50	1.88	23.12	0.125	-0.511	6.61	3.06
B.Johnson	2005	14	5.14	2.86	30.86	0.071	-1.659	6	3.51
J.Reed	2004	11	3.27	1.45	13.91	00	-1.940	4.25	1.39
B.Edwards	2009	16	5.88	2.81	43	0.250	-0.384	7.32	5.80
A.Johnson	2006	16	10.25	6.44	71.69	0.312	-1.297	6.99	9.04
B.Gibson	2011	14	5.07	2.57	30.79	0.071	-1.404	6.07	3.51
A.Johnson	2004	16	8.62	4.94	71.38	0.375	0.713	8.28	9.39
J.McCareins	2006	15	2.60	1.53	23	0.067	0.167	8.85	2.70
R.Williams	2007	15	4	2.53	42.07	0.667	3.814	10.52	8.21
R.Gardner	2004	16	6.62	3.19	40.62	0.312	-0.766	6.13	5.94
D.White	2003	15	7.13	3.27	38.87	0.200	-2.121	5.45	5.09
K.Walter	2008	16	5.94	3.75	56.19	0.500	1.754	9.46	8.62
D.White	2002	16	5.88	3.19	41	0.250	-0.333	6.98	5.60
J.Porter	2004	16	8.50	4	62.50	0.562	0.595	7.35	9.62
B.Johnson	2008	14	5.36	3.21	39	0.214	-0.990	7.28	5.19
M.Booker	2005	14	6.14	2.79	49	0.214	-09	7.98	6.19
M.Crabtree	2010	16	6.31	3.44	46.31	0.375	0.529	7.34	6.88
M.Jenkins	2010	11	6.64	3.73	45.91	0.182	-0.904	6.92	5.68
B.Gibson	2010	14	6.50	3.79	44.29	0.143	-1.244	6.81	5.29
		14.60	5.81	3.12	41.28	0.254	-0.328	7.04	5.65

I think in some sense, the argument as to whether you should draft QB early this year comes down to whether last year was an outlier, or part of a new trend.  Basically, the distribution of QB points in fantasy football didn’t look like it ever had before.  To illustrate this point, I’ve created graphs of the distribution of fantasy points among the top 12 QBs for each of the past 12 seasons.  Here’s the graph and then I’ll walk you through it with some comments.

What you want to look at in the graph is the range of the orange fill in the graph (range from left to right) and also the height of the bump.  When the orange area doesn’t have a wide range left to right, and it has a tall peak, that means that QB points will be pretty much clustered around the mean.  But in years like 2004 (Peyton Manning) and 2007 (Tom Brady) you’ll see a wide left to right range and a less of a peak near the mean.  In those years, having the top QB provided a lot of fantasy points above the replacement level player.

But you can see that 2011 didn’t look like any other year.  That’s because the right hand side of the graph didn’t have just 1 outstanding QB like ’04 and ’07 did.  Last year there were 5 “elite” QBs (if we allow ourselves to water down the use of the word elite).

Perhaps another way to look at this same issue is to just calculate the standard deviation in total fantasy points among QBs for each of the past 12 years.  I’ve done that and thrown it into the following graph.

When the S.D. in points among starting fantasy QBs is low, then it doesn’t make sense to pay a high pick premium for any QB.  But when the S.D. is high, then there is more of a difference when it comes to QB.  You can see that in ’04, ’07 and ’11 the S.D. was very high.  In fact the S.D. in ’11 was the highest in the past 12 years by a decent margin.

But I do notice something else in the graph above that is problematic for the RB/RB first crowd (of which I am probably a member).  I’m noticing the the low points in S.D. seem to be getting higher, while the highs are also moving up.  It’s not really clear enough to call it a trend, but there might be something there.  But then again, if we were looking at the same thing last year, we would have said that the S.D. had decresed for three straight years.  Trends are trends until they reverse themselves.

Let me just say that before I go any further, I know you’re reading this and screaming at your computer “I don’t care if Helu and Mathews are similar!!!  Effing Shanahan!!!!”

I’m not even going to offer a retort to that criticism.  I don’t have one.  I tried to figure out the Redskins last year as I liked both Hankerson and Helu going into the year, but I was so thoroughly discredited that I had to actually ban myself from writing about the Redskins any more.

What do they say about people who keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result?

Anyway, I know that Helu and Mathews could be so similar as to look like they were born from the same mother and it wouldn’t matter so long as Mike Shanahan was allocating playing time for one of them.  But just because they are in different situations doesn’t make the comparison uninteresting.  So let’s take a look.

Let’s start with physical attributes.  Ryan Mathews weighed in at 218 pounds and ran a 4.37 at the Combine.  Roy Helu was 219 pounds and ran a 4.40 at the Combine.  Mathews’ vertical leap was 36 inches, while Helu’s was 36.5.  Vertical leap is probably irrelevant to a running back’s chances for success, so I’m only throwing that out there as being interesting.

In college the players compiled similar statistics.  Helu ran for 3400 yards at a 5.9 YPC clip, while Mathews ran for 3200 yards on a 6.1 YPC pace.

Roy Helu College Stats

 

The rookie year of each running back looks very similar.  Mathews ran for 678 yards on 158 carries.  Helu ran for 640 yards on 151 carries.  Of the two backs, Helu was more utilized in the receiving game.  He caught 49 passes to Mathews’ 22 passes caught as a rookie.  Mathews ran for more touchdowns, but you may remember that he beat up on a hapless Broncos defense for three of those touchdowns.  Also, Mathews was part of a San Diego offense that was not starting Rex Grossman, so there’s that.

Roy Helu NFL Production to Date

Ryan Mathews NFL Production to Date

 

I guess the question then is whether any of this matters.  I would submit that it sort of does.

First, Helu is going off right now at RB25.  It’s not like any of the other RBs in that area have really clear usage situations either.  The Law Firm is being drafted ahead of Helu, doesn’t have the physical talent of Helu, and might be splitting time in Cincy anyway.  Also, Helu’s ADP is basically a discount to where Mathews was being drafted last year.  Mathews was being drafted as high as RB16 at some points last year and remember that Mathews still had to share the ball with Mike Tolbert.  Helu’s ADP of RB25 does sort of price in the Shanahan factor.

Basically Helu is going to be either an RB2 on a team that went QB/WR/TE earlier, or an RB3 on a team that pounded away at running back earlier.  That strikes me as being appropriate for the risk/reward involved in drafting Helu.