Category: Free Content

Running the Football is My Big White Whale

You can go ahead and put running the football in the group of things I have an unhealthy relationship with.  Other members of this group include:

  • Any movie where Maggie Gyllenhaal is described as hot.
  • Barack Obama’s ridiculous claim that he crossed over Chris Paul (or at least that he did it when Chris Paul was trying)
  • Any restaurant menu that includes superfluous adjectives like “farm raised”.  Nothing I love more than forgetting what I’m reading about because I had to wade through 8 adjectives that I don’t give a shit about.
  • The NCAA cartel that fixes prices on athlete compensation instead of letting the free market work
  • People who race around you in traffic only to stop at the same red light as you.  They’re probably on the way to the lab to finish up that cancer cure I’m sure.
  • A movie about a 100 year old vampire hooking up with a 17 year old girl.  Nice message.
  • Magician-comedians

 

At a certain point you know you’ve gone crazy when the mere mention of something increases your blood pressure and makes an aneurism more likely.  Running the football is in the group for me now.

imageOne of the things that you have to look at when you’re talking about running the ball is whether a team is doing it to end the game, or whether they are doing it to get a lead.

I thought I would look at play calling when the score is tied to see if it tells us anything about team success.  It does.  Teams who call more run plays when the score is tied are on average worse than teams who call pass plays when the score is tied.

The table I’ve pasted on the right shows each team’s percent of plays called that were runs (while tied) along with their point differential for 2011.  It’s sorted by point differential and then it shows the percent of run plays called when the score is tied.

There is actually a statistically significant relationship if you want to run a regression to check.  The more run plays you call when tied, the worse your team is likely to be.

I should clarify here because it’s not the kind of thing you’re going to use to predict point differentials.  Instead it’s just another examination of the relationship between running and winning.

The reality is that teams who call pass plays when they are tied are going to have better passing offenses.  They can afford to pass the ball.  But every team has a choice between whether it wants to be a passing team or a running team.  Some teams just choose to be running teams.

Pot Odds: Doing the Math on the Mike Wallace Tender (Part2)

About a month ago I posted on the Mike Wallace tender and how I thought the math was in favor of not giving up a draft pick in order to sign Wallace.  You can read the full post here.

At the heart of that argument was a probability problem related to the odds that a late 1st round pick could outperform Wallace over the course of his contract.  I said an NFL team was getting 5:1 odds to just stay in their draft spot and not give it up for Wallace.

This isn’t scientific at all, but here are all of the late 1st round picks from the last decade.  You can make up your own mind as to whether 5:1 odds are good enough to pass on Wallace.

Year Pick Player Tm College/Univ
2011 26 Jonathan Baldwin KAN Pittsburgh
2010 22 Demaryius Thomas DEN Georgia Tech
2010 24 Dez Bryant DAL Oklahoma St.
2009 22 Percy Harvin MIN Florida
2009 29 Hakeem Nicks NYG North Carolina
2009 30 Kenny Britt TEN Rutgers
2007 23 Dwayne Bowe KAN LSU
2007 27 Robert Meachem NOR Tennessee
2007 30 Craig Davis SDG LSU
2007 32 Anthony Gonzalez IND Ohio St.
2006 25 Santonio Holmes PIT Ohio St.
2005 21 Matt Jones JAX Arkansas
2005 22 Mark Clayton BAL Oklahoma
2005 27 Roddy White ATL Ala-Birmingham
2004 29 Michael Jenkins ATL Ohio St.
2004 31 Rashaun Woods SFO Oklahoma St.
2002 20 Javon Walker GNB Florida St.

The NFL Draft Twitter Discovery List Part 2 (The Heavy Hitters)

As I mentioned yesterday, I love discovering new content.  But it’s not that easy.  Twitter is a good example of how difficult content discovery can be.  There are millions of twitter accounts.  How do you know which accounts are good to follow?  I use sort of a “maven” rule.  I like to follow accounts that are being followed by mavens in any domain. 

When I want to figure out who to follow related to the NFL draft I find about 10 draft twitter accounts and then I figure out who those accounts are following.  That’s step one.  There’s one more needed step.  Some accounts just have a lot of followers.  For instance, @barackobama might be followed by a lot of draft experts, but that doesn’t mean that it’s a relevant draft account.  So in order to negate the affect of an account having a lot of followers (like Bill Simmons for instance), I measure how many mavens among the draft community follow that account, but then I control for total followers. 

When I do that, I get the following list of names.  It’s a “Who’s Who” in the draft community.  I’m offering this list because there might be a few names on there that you’re not following, but you should be.  I think it’s helpful to see those names next to the widely known names.  It’s sort of a “proof of relevance”.  Again, these are the accounts that the draft mavens are following at a higher rate than can be explained by total followers.

Apologies for such a long list, but there are a lot of draft relevant accounts out there.

Name Followers Tweets Link Description
Evan Silva 16604 31879 evansilva Senior NFL Editor for Rotoworld, writer for NBC Sports & Profootballtalk.com.
Greg Cosell 32535 1219 gregcosell Executive producer of NFL Matchup, Senior Producer NFL Films for 33 years, Co-author of The Games That Changed The Game
Sigmund Bloom 9468 51901 SigmundBloom NFL Draft lead writer for Bleacher Report, Audible co-host, projector, writer for Footballguys.com, Stay-at-Home Dad, Pontificater
Chad Reuter 4445 10616 ChadReuter NFL Network – Senior Researcher – College Football/Draft
SC_DougFarrar 14149 28668 SC_DougFarrar Football dork for Yahoo Sports; Editor of Shutdown Corner. Team player w/rebellious tendencies. Yes, I am pissed off for greatness.
Adam Caplan 30775 41535 caplannfl NFL Reporter/Analyst/Radio Host–Host: XM (87)/Sir. (210); WCHE 1520 AM (2-3 pm on Sat.); Host: Film Room (Philadelphiaeagles.com); Contact: caplannfl@gmail.com
Josh Norris 3100 12531 JoshNorris Rotoworld NFL Draft Contributor. One NFL Team’s Scouting Department Intern during ’10 Training Camp & ’11 NFL Draft. Elon Graduate.
Cecil Lammey 5780 9024 cecillammey NFL Insider for 102.3 ESPN Denver and senior writer for Footballguys.com
Dan Shonka 6095 5651 Ourlads_Shonka Former NFL Scout with Eagles,Redskins,Chiefs,Now GM and National Scout for Ourlads’NFL Scouting Services LLC, wife of 33 yrs Peggy,kids:Sarah & Teddy.
Wes Bunting 15335 10460 WesBunting Blogger @FootballPost
Matt Williamson 19483 6821 WilliamsonNFL NFL Scout for ESPN.com and Scouts, Inc. Also host of Football Today Podcast.
Ryan Lownes 2101 11069 ryanlownes NFL Draft analyst, enthusiast, and writer for DraftBreakdown.com. Undergraduate student at Ohio University from the Philadelphia area. Let’s talk some football.
Aaron Aloysius 2380 12809 AaronAloysius Draft prospect video guy (http://bit.ly/ph5IAx) who writes for DraftBreakdown.com & TheOBR.com. Avatar by the great @RumfordJohnny
Dane Brugler 2473 1910 dpbrugler NFL Draft Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, a partner of CBSSports.com.
Tony  Pauline 4720 1124 TonyPauline NFL Draft Analyst for SI.com & owner, TFYDraft.com, devout/diehard Led Zeppelin fan for a looonnnnnnngg time…
Russell S. Baxter 5242 9242 BaxFootballGuru Veteran NFL writer/researcher. @thenflmagazine,  FootballPros.com, NationalFootballAuthority.com, NFL.com, ThePostGame.com, SportsReviewMagazine.com
Senior Bowl 6263 2991 seniorbowl The official twitter page of the Senior Bowl.
Howard Balzer 7034 4030 HBalzer721  
Rob Rang 7823 2867 RobRang Senior NFL Draft Analyst for NFLDraftScout.com, The Sports XChange and CBSSports.com. Interview requests can be sent to rrang@nfldraftscout.com.
Lance Zierlein 12698 31568 LanceZierlein I’m a sports talk host in Houston, a football blogger for the Houston Chronicle, co-own TheSidelineView.com.  I have an awesome wife and 5 kids.
Matt Miller 20257 21529 nfldraftscout Senior NFL Draft Lead Writer at Bleacher Report–Founder of New Era Scouting
Joe Goodberry 1213 29040 JoeGoodberry Contributor for CincyJungle.com | NFL Draft Analyst/Draftnik/Evaluator | Father & Fiancé | Tweets are 91.362% Bengals, Football & Draft related
Fran Duffy 1404 3762 fduffyEagles Associate Producer with Philadelphiaeagles.com; former Video Coordinator with Temple. NFL Draft enthusiast. Tweets based on my opinion ONLY – not the Eagles’
Marc Lillibridge 2395 4024 NFL_Bridge Proud to represent NFL Players. Only agent to play and scout in the NFL.  Played LB for Dolphins and Saints, then scouted for Packers and Chiefs.
Andrew Garda 2800 40560 Andrew_Garda Footballguys Staff writer, NFC North lead writer for BleacherReport.com. Lucky dad and husband, huge nerd.
Kevin Weidl 3750 1464 Kevin_Weidl College football and NFL draft analyst with ESPN
Shane P. Hallam 3774 30971 ShanePHallam Fantasy Football/NFL Draft Expert.  Draft Analyst www.draftcountdown.com.  Member of the Football Writer’s Association of America
Matt Waldman 4431 8176 MattWaldman Magazine journalist. Football writer. Rookie Scouting Portfolio author: The most comprehensive film study of rookie skill position players available.
Dave Razzano 5242 3377 DaveRazzano NFL scout for more than 22 yrs,49ers, Rams, Cardinals. Have wrked with 5 Super Bwl teams. NFL Analyst on 95.7 TheGame in S.F.
Russell Lande 5246 1777 RUSSLANDE NFL DRAFT EXPERT for GM Jr. Scouting (www.RUSSLANDE.com) & The Sporting News (www.sportingnews.com).
Scott Wright 6934 3333 DraftCountdown Scott Wright is the founder of Draft Countdown.com
John McClain 33711 5716 McClain_on_NFL Has covered the NFL for the Houston Chronicle for 33 years. Can be heard on Sports Radio 610 in Houston and 104.5 The Zone in Nashville.
gregg rosenthal 35762 7433 greggrosenthal NFL.com
Matthew Elder 1278 22494 Matthewcelder Director of Scouting for BuffaloBillsDraft.com, Selection Committee Member for 2012 BSN Collegiate Showcase
Josh Buchanan 2056 14729 JoshBDraft JBScouting.com owner, former all-star game scout/SID, Pro Hopefuls writer for D2football.com, Phil Steele writer, and FWAA/PFWA member.
Matt Bitonti 2080 1066 DraftDaddy NFL Draft news and knowledge.
Alen Dumonjic 2266 11220 Dumonjic_Alen Just another young guy with a computer blogging  X’s and O’s for TheScore.com and Bleacherreport.com. A Gooner at heart. Fauvist fanatic. Opinions are own.
Chris Kouffman 2327 20303 ckparrot NFL Draft Featured Columnist at Bleacher Report, Writer at UniversalDraft.com as well as Draft Winds series on Dave Hyde’s blog at South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Eric Galko 2869 11252 OptimumScouting Director of Scouting for Optimum Scouting, OptimumScouting.com; EricG@OptimumScouting.com
Michael Schottey 3566 36303 Schottey NFL Associate Editor at Bleacher Report, Member of the Pro Football Writers of America.
NFLDraftScout.com 3846 4182 DraftScout NFLDraftScout.com is the leading source for information and analysis on the NFL Draft year round. We’re now on Twitter and Facebook as well!
Chris Wesseling 9032 21228 ChrisWesseling Senior NFL football editor at Rotoworld.com, writer for NBCSports.com, creator of Sons of the Tundra Dynasty Rankings blog, part-time roisterer.
NFL Draft Insider 14763 6199 NFLDraftInsider Jared Tokarz, NFL enthusiast, & NFL Draft expert. Follow for Breaking News Football tweets and One of a kind  interviews.
Business: nfldraftinsider@gmail.com