More “sabremetrics for twitter accounts” here.  The list below is for a group of fantasy relevant twitter accounts that are all below 2,000 followers.  As I’ve said before, I think content discovery on Twitter is really difficult.  I’m just trying to connect the dots for you in figuring out who to follow.

The accounts below are all followed by a group of maven fantasy football accounts, and at higher numbers than you would expect given their total follower numbers.

If you don’t follow them, you’re only hurting yourself.

Name	Followers	Link	Details
Matt Schauf	1648	mschauf63	I love my family, fantasy football and good beer (not the stuff your uncle drinks). The order of that list depends on when you ask me.
Alessandro Miglio	1854	PFF_Alex	Redraft Editor for @PFF_Fantasy. Member of @FSWA. #Dolphins featured columnist for @BleacherReport. All opinions here are my own.
zach_law	948	zach_law	Find Ask Your Fantasy Football Expert blog posts at zachlawonline.com. I also write for Bleacher Report http://bleacherreport.com/users/820689-zach-law.
Steve Wyremski	1030	SteveWyremski	NFL / FF freak, Writer for Dynasty League Football
Eric Dickens	1702	DLFootball	#Dynasty Football…the beast never sleeps.
Jeff Ratcliffe	903	JeffRatcliffe	Sports enthusiast, anthropologist, college professor, and the IDP Director and Senior Fantasy Writer for PFF Fantasy
Miller	1156	FantasyJedi	Commissioner of The Fantasy Premier League (@FPLChampionship) and the Fantasy Champions League (Coming in 2013) Writer of Fiction. Pontificator. Homebrewer.
RumfordJohnny	1548	RumfordJohnny	Co-founder of 2mugsff.com (w/ @RyFo18) a fantasy football site for beer geeks. President & lone member of the Ross Ventrone Fan Club.
Michael Daneshgar	442	MDaneshgar	Write for @DraftBreakdown and the Dynasty section with @profootbalfocus. UF Sport Management grad student cursed to be raised as a Cleveland sports fan.
Eye of the Gator	777	EyeoftheGator	Now writing for Dynasty League Football (DLF to those in the know). Creator of Race to the Bottom: [Improved Site Coming Soon!]
Dexter’s Library	856	Dexters_Library	Dexter Manley’s Library: expert #fantasyfootball advice for the functionally illiterate. Fake it till you make it. #NFL #Comedy #ManleyAxioms
Akshay Anand	930	PFF_Akshay	Monster Pats fan. Senior Fantasy Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy. Find my content here:
Rick Drummond	1521	PFF_Rick	Editor, Pro Football Focus. I remember where I was standing when my dad told me Stabler had been traded.
Eric Yeomans	1935	Eric_Yeomans	Featured Contributor/Account Manager at JuniorHockey.com and Senior Writer at Pro Football Focus
Tyson Langland	616	PFF_Tyson	UNLV Alumni. Agent/player relations, player participation and writing, all for Pro Football Focus. All thoughts on Twitter are thoughts of my own.
Ryan Forbes	764	RyFo18	Co-Founder of @2MugsFF w/ @RumfordJohnny. Sports nut (Chiefs, Brewers, Red Wings, Jayhawks). My tweets are ramblings about the sports world.
Brian Quinlan	1085	BNQuinlan	Part-time fantasyfootball expert. Full time addict. I also like beer.
Andrea Hangst	1087	FBALL_Andrea	NFL analyst. Bleacher Report AFC North Lead Blogger. PFF Fantasy contributor, & F*BALL editor/podcaster. Chicago lady/Steelers fan/not a homer or a hater.
Chad Parsons	1102	PFF_ChadParsons	Dynasty Podcast Host: http://www.blogtalkradio.com/pff-fantasy, profootballfocus.com Dynasty Writer: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/author/fdctrumpet/
Ross Miles	1113	PFF_RossMiles	FantasyPros’ 2011 IDP Expert Accuracy Winner. IDP Editor for @PFF_Fantasy. St Louis Rams fan. Surprisingly, I’m English & live in London.
Clint Chugg	1382	YHIHF	Owner of, and writer for, You Heard It Here First fantasy football, and contributing writer for Razzball fantasy football (http://football.razzball.com/).
Allie Fontana	1451	AllieFontana	NFL & Fantasy Analyst; Managing Editor, Bruno Boys Fantasy Football; Co-host Fantasy Gridiron Live!; Sports lover, fashionista, foodie & pop culture savant.
Erik Frenz	1543	ErikFrenz	Cover the AFC East for @BleacherReport. PatsPropaganda & Frenz podcast co-host. Warning: I tweet a lot. RT =/= endorsement.
Ms. Cakes	492	patycake15	Bears|Rams|Steelers. FFball champ|Triathlete|Marathoner. STLRams Reporter for @ThePigskinArch on@AerysSports|@101ESPN Columnist.

The Dallas Cowboys famously laid the groundwork for a three Super Bowl dynasty using the results of analysis that one of Jerry Jones’ partners did on the value of each pick in the NFL draft.  That analysis was the basis for what is now known simply as “The Chart”.  The Chart has driven valuations on draft pick trades for some time now.  I’m sure there were any number of other factors that led to the three Super Bowls that Dallas won in the 90s, but The Chart was at least part of it.

Because even simple analytics (The Chart was based on some very crude analysis and yet was extremely effective until the market adjusted) can help teams, I’m always amazed at the general skepticism towards analytics in football.

In any case, between now and the draft I’ll be throwing out some ideas on how I think teams could draft better.  Like The Chart, these ideas are the result of crude analysis.  NFL teams can and should hire more sophisticated analysts than just one idiot with a little Excel knowledge (that idiot is me).

Teams should adopt a Supply/Demand Theory of Drafting.

Every NFL team starts 5 offensive linemen and 1 running back.  But teams do not draft these positions in the same ratios that they appear on the field.  Teams only draft linemen about twice as often as they draft running backs.  This is despite the fact that running backs are involved primarily in the running game, while lineman are required for every play.

To further this argument that teams should pay attention to supply and demand when drafting, here are two charts that help make the case.

The first graph shows that O-Line positions play about 75 career games on average if they are drafted (does not count undrafted free agents).  By contrast, running backs play about 10 fewer career games on average.  The second graph shows the rate that these positions were drafted from 1990-2006.  Offensive line is only drafted about twice as often as running back despite outnumbering running backs by 5:1 on the field.  In case you’re worried about the 2006 cutoff, these ratios were even more out of balance in 2010-2011.  The 2006 cutoff was done simply to get a better sample on career games played.

(Source Data: Pro-Football-Reference)

Note that if there wasn’t a general scarcity of linemen, then their career games played wouldn’t be so high.  Oversupply/competition would send that number down.

To illustrate why this graph supports my Supply/Demand theory, think about what might happen if NFL teams started drafting linemen in greater numbers.  Right now teams are very good at selecting linemen.  The linemen they select tend to play a lot of career games.  But as teams begin to select more linemen, they would mix in some “bad” linemen.  Those “bad” linemen would play less career games and the position group would go down in “average games played”.  But in addition to adding more bad linemen to the mix, there would be more competition for the line spots, which would also send that “average games played” stat downward.

At the same time that teams are selecting more linemen, they would select fewer running backs.  When they do that, they would be selecting only running backs that they feel really strongly about.  The overall quality of the running backs they select would go up, which would reduce the odds of drafting “busts”.  But at the same time that “bust” odds are reduced, teams would be introducing less running backs to the system.  The running backs who are drafted would be of greater quality and would have less competition.  Their “average games played” statistic would likely increase.

It’s not that the goal is to draft more bad linemen, it’s just that teams should draft more linemen, which will increase the odds of drafting bad ones.  Basically, NFL teams should just reverse the attitudes that they have about linemen and running backs.

Let’s say we ran a team and wanted to implement this strategy.  First, why would it help us?  Because:

• We would let other teams keep throwing darts at their running backs
• We would be upgrading the relative quality of our offensive line,
• We would be pulling linemen out of the talent pool, which would mean that…
• Other teams’ relative offensive line quality would go down even further.
• Teams who were counting on being able to get a quality undrafted free agent lineman wouldn’t be able to.  We would have already drafted him.

 

We would be probably be starting an undrafted running back behind an excellent line, while other teams would start their running back (who might be good or might be bad) behind a substandard offensive line.  This strategy would also likely help our passing game as well.

Because I can see someone raising the objection that I haven’t included injuries in my logic, let me address that briefly.  First, I do think it’s already included.  Linemen get injured just like running backs do.  But because linemen are in short supply, they play through injuries and they come back and play on beaten up bodies.  When running backs get injured, they’re thrown on the scrap heap and a new running back is inserted into their position.  This is essentially a supply and demand issue.  Teams overdraft running backs and then treat running back injuries like you would treat a “totalled” car.  Teams underdraft linemen and then just settle for linemen who might be playing injured.

This have been just one simple idea.  More to come before draft day.

Below is a table which has the results of the quick WR poll I just ran.  The poll questions were basically how many Pro Bowls each wide receiver will play in.  There were a few interesting things to note.

I’ve posted the variance for each player as well as I thought it was really interesting how the voting shook out.  Kendall Wright was by far the most consistent (lowest variance).  He only got one vote for zero Pro Bowls.  Justin Blackmon on the other hand was all over the board.  People seem to be deeply divided as to whether or not he’ll be good.  His fans think he’ll be awesome, while others have a much lower opinion.

Michael Floyd ended up being the winner by a decent margin.

	Average Pro Bowls Predicted	Variance
Michael Floyd	2.73	1.80
Justin Blackmon	2.33	2.62
Kendall Wright	1.67	0.89
Stephen Hill	0.87	1.32
Alshon Jeffery	0.53	1.32
Rueben Randle	0.50	1.68