Category: Analysis

Greg Little Comparables

689px-Greg_Little_Cleveland_Browns

I actually already wrote a guest post about Greg Little some time ago for FootballSickness.com..  But since then I’ve updated the comps to work with the play-by-play database which means that we can look at them with more granular information.

If I had one thing to say about Little it would be that I can’t believe he’s a number one receiver in the NFL.  If I could say just one more thing, it would be that there’s no way he can be as bad next year as he was last year.

I don’t want to offer too much more, because as I said on Twitter, you shouldn’t listen to anything I say about Little at this point.  I’m probably hopelessly biased against him.  The other thing is that no matter how he plays this year, it can’t be as bad as last year, so there’s no point in throwing any more dirt on him.  Nowhere to go but up.

Stats that aren’t obvious:

Y/T – Yards/Target

R/G – Receptions/Game

Y/G – Yards/Game

FPOP/G – Fantasy Points Over Par/Game (essentially an efficiency measure)

Y/T – Yards/Target

Feel free to browse the names on the list.  I have just one takeaway from this data.  The similar players were all targeted quite a bit less in year 2, but they were more efficient.  Higher yards/target numbers made up for the reduced targets.  I think that’s roughly consistent with what we might predict for Little this year.  Don’t expect 7.5 targets/game again, but also he’ll be more efficient with the targets he does get.

Greg Little 2011

Name Wt Ht Age YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
G.Little 220 75 22 2011 16 7.50 3.81 44.31 0.12 -2.30 5.91 5.18

 

Comparable Seasons

Name Wt Age YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
Donald Hayes 220 26 2001 16 6.56 3.25 37.31 0.125 -2.424 5.69 4.48
Dez White 215 24 2003 15 7.13 3.27 38.87 0.200 -2.121 5.45 5.09
B.Johnson 214 23 2004 16 6.38 3.06 33.56 0.062 -2.278 5.26 3.73
J.Reed 208 23 2003 16 6.50 3.62 36.75 0.125 -2.111 5.65 4.42
B.Edwards 211 25 2008 16 8.62 3.44 54.81 0.188 -2.513 6.36 6.61
A.Johnson 219 24 2005 13 8.77 4.85 52.92 0.154 -3.179 6.04 6.22
B.Gibson 204 23 2010 14 6.50 3.79 44.29 0.143 -1.244 6.81 5.29
A.Johnson 219 22 2003 16 7.44 4.12 61 0.250 0.072 8.20 7.60
J.McCareins 215 27 2005 16 6.38 2.69 44.56 0.125 -1.619 6.99 5.21
Reggie Williams 225 23 2006 16 5.69 3.25 38.50 0.250 -0.316 6.77 5.35
R.Gardner 213 26 2003 16 7.19 3.69 37.50 0.312 -1.728 5.22 5.62
D.White 215 23 2002 16 5.88 3.19 41 0.250 -0.333 6.98 5.60
K.Walter 221 26 2007 16 6.62 4.06 50 0.250 -0.205 7.55 6.50
D.White 215 22 2001 14 5.86 3.21 30.57 00 -2.680 5.22 3.06
J.Porter 220 25 2003 9 6.33 3.11 40.78 0.111 -1.630 6.44 4.74
B.Johnson 214 26 2007 16 5.44 2.81 32.81 0.125 -2.312 6.03 4.03
M.Booker 212 28 2004 15 7 3.33 42.53 0.067 -2.345 6.08 4.65
M.Crabtree 215 22 2009 11 7.82 4.36 56.82 0.182 -0.657 7.27 6.77
M.Jenkins 217 27 2009 15 6 3.33 42.33 0.067 -1.351 7.06 4.63
B.Gibson 204 22 2009 9 7.67 3.78 39 0.111 -3.110 5.09 4.57
Average 214.8 24.3   14.55 6.79 3.51 42.80 0.155 -1.704 6.31 5.21

 

Year 2

Name YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
D.Hayes 2002 11 2.82 1.09 12.09 0.182 -0.567 4.29 2.30
D.White 2004 16 3.50 1.88 23.12 0.125 -0.511 6.61 3.06
B.Johnson 2005 14 5.14 2.86 30.86 0.071 -1.659 6 3.51
J.Reed 2004 11 3.27 1.45 13.91 00 -1.940 4.25 1.39
B.Edwards 2009 16 5.88 2.81 43 0.250 -0.384 7.32 5.80
A.Johnson 2006 16 10.25 6.44 71.69 0.312 -1.297 6.99 9.04
B.Gibson 2011 14 5.07 2.57 30.79 0.071 -1.404 6.07 3.51
A.Johnson 2004 16 8.62 4.94 71.38 0.375 0.713 8.28 9.39
J.McCareins 2006 15 2.60 1.53 23 0.067 0.167 8.85 2.70
R.Williams 2007 15 4 2.53 42.07 0.667 3.814 10.52 8.21
R.Gardner 2004 16 6.62 3.19 40.62 0.312 -0.766 6.13 5.94
D.White 2003 15 7.13 3.27 38.87 0.200 -2.121 5.45 5.09
K.Walter 2008 16 5.94 3.75 56.19 0.500 1.754 9.46 8.62
D.White 2002 16 5.88 3.19 41 0.250 -0.333 6.98 5.60
J.Porter 2004 16 8.50 4 62.50 0.562 0.595 7.35 9.62
B.Johnson 2008 14 5.36 3.21 39 0.214 -0.990 7.28 5.19
M.Booker 2005 14 6.14 2.79 49 0.214 -09 7.98 6.19
M.Crabtree 2010 16 6.31 3.44 46.31 0.375 0.529 7.34 6.88
M.Jenkins 2010 11 6.64 3.73 45.91 0.182 -0.904 6.92 5.68
B.Gibson 2010 14 6.50 3.79 44.29 0.143 -1.244 6.81 5.29
    14.60 5.81 3.12 41.28 0.254 -0.328 7.04 5.65

How Should We Expect Quarterback Points to be Distributed?

I think in some sense, the argument as to whether you should draft QB early this year comes down to whether last year was an outlier, or part of a new trend.  Basically, the distribution of QB points in fantasy football didn’t look like it ever had before.  To illustrate this point, I’ve created graphs of the distribution of fantasy points among the top 12 QBs for each of the past 12 seasons.  Here’s the graph and then I’ll walk you through it with some comments.

Rplot95

What you want to look at in the graph is the range of the orange fill in the graph (range from left to right) and also the height of the bump.  When the orange area doesn’t have a wide range left to right, and it has a tall peak, that means that QB points will be pretty much clustered around the mean.  But in years like 2004 (Peyton Manning) and 2007 (Tom Brady) you’ll see a wide left to right range and a less of a peak near the mean.  In those years, having the top QB provided a lot of fantasy points above the replacement level player.

But you can see that 2011 didn’t look like any other year.  That’s because the right hand side of the graph didn’t have just 1 outstanding QB like ’04 and ’07 did.  Last year there were 5 “elite” QBs (if we allow ourselves to water down the use of the word elite).

Perhaps another way to look at this same issue is to just calculate the standard deviation in total fantasy points among QBs for each of the past 12 years.  I’ve done that and thrown it into the following graph.

Rplot92

When the S.D. in points among starting fantasy QBs is low, then it doesn’t make sense to pay a high pick premium for any QB.  But when the S.D. is high, then there is more of a difference when it comes to QB.  You can see that in ’04, ’07 and ’11 the S.D. was very high.  In fact the S.D. in ’11 was the highest in the past 12 years by a decent margin.

But I do notice something else in the graph above that is problematic for the RB/RB first crowd (of which I am probably a member).  I’m noticing the the low points in S.D. seem to be getting higher, while the highs are also moving up.  It’s not really clear enough to call it a trend, but there might be something there.  But then again, if we were looking at the same thing last year, we would have said that the S.D. had decresed for three straight years.  Trends are trends until they reverse themselves.

Calvin Johnson Comparables

481px-Calvin_Johnson_LionsI always say that half of the value of running comparables is statistical, and the other half is psychological.  It actually helps our brains adjust if we see the results of what similar players did following a season.  Perhaps the area of the fantasy draft where this matters most is at the top.  It’s always difficult to look at the top of the draft and forecast anything other than a repeat of the prior year’s statistical season (even if we might know it’s an outlier).  So looking at comparables helps to make the idea of regression a real thing for our brains.

Calvin Johnson’s 2011 was so outstanding that it would be unlikely that he could reproduce it.  That doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have by far the greatest chance of finishing as the #1 fantasy receiver, but players do tend to come back to earth a little after such a big season.  In the tables below you’ll be able to see that.  Table 1 is Megatron’s 2011 season.  Then the next table shows the 30 comparable players.  The last table shows what those comparables did in the following season.

Here are my takeaways:

  • Johnson is such a physical outlier that coming up with accurate comparables is actually pretty difficult.  Note that Johnson is about 15 pounds bigger than the average of the comparables.
  • Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are the players that appear most in the table.  That strikes me as being appropriate as Johnson is basically their successor as the most dominant WR in the league.
  • While I have Johnson as my #1 WR, and his margin over #2 is fairly large, I think it’s realistic to expect that he could finish as the top WR, but with lower numbers.  If you looked at Terrell Owens at a similar age, he was basically going for like 1300/12 each year.  So I think maybe something in that range is where I would expect Johnson to end up.
  • Johnson is a rare case where the average of the comparables is actually less than what he produced last year.  That’s probably worth taking into consideration.

 

Subject Player

Name Wt Ht Age YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
C.Johnson 239 77 26 2011 16 9.88 6 105.06 1 5.69 10.64 16.51

Comparable Seasons

Name Wt Ht Age YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
T.Owens 226 75 27 2000 14 10.43 6.93 103.64 0.93 4.92 9.94 15.94
R.Moss 215 76 26 2003 16 10.75 6.94 102 1.12 5.07 9.49 16.95
T.Owens 226 75 28 2001 16 9.69 5.81 88.25 1 4.39 9.11 14.82
A.Johnson 219 75 26 2007 9 9.56 6.67 94.56 0.89 4.85 9.90 14.79
T.Owens 226 75 34 2007 15 9.40 5.47 91.80 1 5.28 9.77 15.18
T.Owens 226 75 31 2004 14 9.07 5.50 85.71 1 4.89 9.45 14.57
R.Moss 215 76 23 2000 16 8.00 4.81 89.88 0.94 6.31 11.23 14.61
C.Johnson 239 77 23 2008 16 9.44 4.88 83.19 0.75 3.45 8.81 12.82
J.Walker 220 75 26 2004 16 9.00 5.56 86.38 0.75 3.75 9.60 13.14
C.Johnson 239 77 25 2010 15 9.13 5.13 74.73 0.80 2.71 8.18 12.27
V.Jackson 241 77 26 2009 15 7.13 4.53 77.80 0.60 4.16 10.91 11.38
L.Fitzgerald 225 75 25 2008 16 9.56 5.94 89.38 0.75 2.53 9.35 13.44
R.Moss 215 76 30 2007 16 9.94 6.12 92.62 1.44 6.34 9.32 17.89
M.Muhammad 217 74 31 2004 16 10.00 5.81 87.81 1 3.90 8.78 14.78
B.Edwards 211 75 24 2007 16 9.56 5 80.69 1 3.45 8.44 14.07
D.Bowe 221 74 26 2010 16 8.31 4.50 72.62 0.94 4.03 8.74 12.89
M.Austin 215 75 25 2009 16 7.75 5.06 82.50 0.69 3.96 10.65 12.38
T.Owens 226 75 29 2002 14 11.36 7.14 92.86 0.93 2.62 8.18 14.86
D.Boston 240 74 23 2001 16 10.94 6.12 99.88 0.50 2.03 9.13 12.99
L.Fitzgerald 225 75 26 2009 16 9.56 6.06 68.25 0.81 1.44 7.14 11.70
A.Johnson 219 75 28 2009 16 10.69 6.31 98.06 0.56 2.12 9.18 13.18
L.Fitzgerald 225 75 24 2007 15 11.13 6.73 94.27 0.67 2.14 8.47 13.43
D.Bennett 206 77 26 2004 16 9 5 77.94 0.69 2.62 8.66 11.92
M.Colston 225 76 24 2007 16 8.88 6.06 74.19 0.69 1.52 8.36 11.54
R.Moss 215 76 32 2009 16 8.62 5.19 79 0.81 3.36 9.16 12.78
P.Burress 226 77 25 2002 16 9 4.88 82.81 0.44 1.85 9.20 10.91
L.Fitzgerald 225 75 22 2005 16 10.31 6.44 88.06 0.62 2.01 8.54 12.56
R.Moss 215 76 27 2004 12 7.17 4.08 63.92 1.08 4.02 8.92 12.89
M.Colston 225 76 23 2006 13 8.85 5.38 79.85 0.62 2.30 9.03 11.68
A.Johnson 219 75 27 2008 16 10.69 7.19 98.88 0.50 1.59 9.25 12.89
Average 222.9 75.4 26.4 15.2 9.43 5.71 86.05 0.82 3.45 9.16 13.5

 Year 2

Name YR G T/G R/G Y/G TD/G FPOP/G Y/T FPs
T.Owens 2001 16 9.69 5.81 88.25 1 4.39 9.11 14.82
R.Moss 2004 12 7.17 4.08 63.92 1.08 4.02 8.92 12.89
T.Owens 2002 14 11.36 7.14 92.86 0.93 2.62 8.18 14.86
A.Johnson 2008 16 10.69 7.19 98.88 0.50 1.59 9.25 12.89
T.Owens 2008 16 8.75 4.31 66 0.62 1.34 7.54 10.35
T.Owens 2005 7 13.14 6.71 109 0.86 2.39 8.29 16.04
R.Moss 2001 16 9.56 5.12 76.81 0.62 1.81 8.03 11.43
C.Johnson 2009 14 9.71 4.79 70.57 0.36 -1.27 7.26 9.20
J.Walker 2005 1 5.0 4.0 27 0 -1.77 5.40 2.70
C.Johnson 2011 16 9.88 6.0 105.06 1 5.69 10.64 16.51
V.Jackson 2010 4 6.0 3.50 62 0.75 4.13 10.33 10.70
L.Fitzgerald 2009 16 9.56 6.06 68.25 0.81 1.44 7.14 11.70
R.Moss 2008 16 7.88 4.31 63 0.69 1.74 8 10.43
M.Muhammad 2005 15 9.07 4.27 50 0.27 -3.32 5.51 6.60
B.Edwards 2008 16 8.62 3.44 54.81 0.19 -2.51 6.36 6.61
D.Bowe 2011 16 8.88 5.06 72.44 0.31 -0.11 8.16 9.12
M.Austin 2010 16 7.44 4.31 65.19 0.44 0.94 8.76 9.14
T.Owens 2003 15 9.73 5.33 73.47 0.60 0.50 7.55 10.95
D.Boston 2002 8 9.38 4.0 64 0.12 -1.82 6.83 7.15
L.Fitzgerald 2010 16 10.81 5.62 71.06 0.38 -2.30 6.57 9.36
A.Johnson 2010 13 10.62 6.62 93.54 0.62 2.44 8.81 13.05
L.Fitzgerald 2008 16 9.56 5.94 89.38 0.75 2.53 9.35 13.44
D.Bennett 2005 13 8.38 4.46 56.77 0.31 -1.64 6.77 7.52
M.Colston 2008 11 8.0 4.27 69.27 0.45 1.33 8.66 9.65
R.Moss 2010 13 4.85 2.15 30.23 0.38 0.19 6.24 5.33
P.Burress 2003 16 7.75 3.75 53.75 0.25 -0.95 6.94 6.88
L.Fitzgerald 2006 13 8.54 5.31 72.77 0.46 0.64 8.52 10.05
R.Moss 2005 16 7.75 3.75 62.81 0.50 1.18 8.10 9.28
M.Colston 2007 16 8.88 6.06 74.19 0.69 1.52 8.36 11.54
A.Johnson 2009 16 10.69 6.31 98.06 0.56 2.12 9.18 13.18
Average 13.63 8.91 4.99 71.44 0.55 0.96 7.96 10.45