We’re constantly trying to find what I would call Level 2 Stats – stats that go one level beyond the box score and tell us something that wasn’t obvious. Today we’ll look at stats that can be derived from the play by play data on running back results inside the opponents 10 yard line.
Carries inside the 10 yard line are more valuable than any other carry from a fantasy standpoint. If you look at studs like Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster you’ll see that a significant amount of their points come from carries inside the 10 yard line.
Below is a table that shows RBs who had more than 10 carries inside the opponents 10 yard line. I am showing total carries, total touchdowns on those carries, the percent of carries that resulted in a TD (conversion rate), average field position of the carries (Yards to Goal), yards per carry, and YPC as a percent of yards needed for a TD.
The full table is below, so you can skip to the end if you want to look at the data. However, the table might make some more sense with a little narrative so I’ll walk you through three of the guys who were good around the goal line and then three of the guys who were not so good.
The Good
Peyton Hillis
Despite having a relatively low number of carries inside the 10 (for a lead back), Hillis was pretty much a stud. He had the highest TD conversion rate at 47% and he also had the highest YPC/YTG. So even though Hillis got the ball on average only needing 4.3 yards for a TD, he averaged 3.1 YPC. That’s pretty phenomenal. If Hillis were on a team that looked like it could improve over its 2010 offensive efficiency, he would be a guy to target based on getting more opportunities. However, I don’t know if another year of experience for Colt McCoy and the addition of Greg Little is enough to point to increasing efficiency for the Browns.
